Trump wants to reopen the country. But just because the curve is flattening does not mean the pandemic is over. Going back to work will not save lives but rather will cause more deaths. Trump is more interested in his election and wants the economy to rebound. Most economists think this would backfire. We need to review the data scientifically. As I have heavily emphasized, one needs to look at United States and Canada in comparison to all of Western Europe because each country is three times the size of Western Europe. In Europe different countries are peaking and ebbing at different dates. Ireland, UK and Eastern Europe are just getting hit now.
So it is unscientific to think that the Mid-West USA and other areas with minimal cases now will always remain low. To declare that the USA should get back to mingling and working will backfire as the pandemic sweeps into these states. Just as no country is immune, no region of a country is immune. If it does not happen now, it will happen in the summer when everyone starts travelling all over the country.
Peyto Lake Photo
Today’s photo is Peyto Lake in the Canadian Rockies. That’s because Canada may have just dodged the bullet and flattened the curve. I have revised my estimates of deaths for a few representative regions at the end of the blog. Canada does extremely well. This all assumes that social distancing policies remain strictly in force until the end of June. Why June? What makes you think pandemic phase 1 will end faster in North America than it did in Europe? It ain’t going to happen.
New Cases Growth Rate
It definitely seems like most western countries have started to flatten the curve. In terms of the fastest growth of new cases, the hot spots are now Russia, Peru, Turkey, India, Ireland, and UK. I rest my case. Ireland and United Kingdom being on islands are just peaking now (contrary to UK politicians). UK has not been as successful in getting its people to follow the social distancing policies.
Death Rate
In terms of deaths, UK with an 12.6% death rate is second only to to Italy at 12.7%. Most countries in the top 15 are in the red zone (very high percent increase since March 21) in the image below. Even those with the lower rates are starting to go up: USA to 3.9%; Ireland 3.5%; Canada 2.9%, Austria 2.5%, and Germany 2.4%
When will this End?
Based on Europe being further along in the cycle, it is assumed that Pandemic Phase 1 will ebb at the end of May. In North America, governments only started taking action after March 1st. Therefore, it is assumed that Phase 1 will ebb at the end of June. That will be the same length of time as Europe — 120 days.
There is a lot of food for thought here. USA has 10 times the population of Canada but will have 31 times the number of deaths. UK has 20% of the population of USA but will have 50% of the number of deaths. USA has 80% of the population of Western Europe but will have 50% of the number of deaths.
DataEncounters 